BIP 148 is a hard fork in disguise

I haven’t much time to write this unfortunately, so I’ll be brief and crass. Fuck Segwit, fuck BIP 148. They are calling BIP 148 a “soft fork” but that’s a manipulation. If 148 isn’t adopted by all, it will split away and we have 2 bitcoins. Its a soft fork that necessarily will lead to a hard fork. Fuck you, its a hard fork.

What is the motivation for this? GREED. The old bitcoin crowd is angry about the success of alt coins, so they are destroying bitcoin to try to keep up with the crowd. Comes down to scaling. Bitcoin isn’t fast enough to be the sole coin on planet earth so they’re trying to speed it up. The old bitcoin devs want no crypto ecosystem, they want everything to be run on Bitcoin. Its not just greed, they hope to be the world’s new Trillionaires (equivalent in BTC of course). Fuck them. The capacity they’re adding with this new code is still vastly insufficient to be a global payment network. So understand this. They’re going to split Bitcoin in 2 to add function that will do almost nothing toward Bitcoin’s problem.

Bitcoin could have fulfilled the role of the slower, older coin that you hold for long term reserve. It has a natural place within the crypto ecosystem. After this fork, what will we have? A bitcoin that has a stupid “legacy” before it and a new bitcoin fork coin that is vastly inferior to modern alt coins. Sounds fantastic.

My advice. If you’ve been holding most of your money in BTC because its the “safe one”, get the hell out. I won’t hold more than 5% of my cryptos in BTC ever again.

At the advice of a colleague, I should always leave some alt recommendations. Full disclosure, of course I have some of all of these great coins:

FTC, MYR, ETC, FST, MUSIC, XCP…..oh and VTC and LTC even though they adopted segwit. Fuck segwit.

 

At the advice of another colleague there may be too many “fuck”s in this article. Fuck that too.

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Rise of the Altcoins.

Scroll down to the monkey if you just want my investment advice given Bitcoin’s fork talk.

I’ve always promoted both bitcoin and many altcoins. My long standing hope for the future of cryptos was a world where bitcoin never lost its dominance, but within a world of many successful crypto currencies. I thought this would develop naturally. Bitcoin’s scaling problems solved by growth within altcoins. What the Bitcoin network couldn’t handle, altcoins would take over. And this wasn’t a situation to fear, it should be embraced. Bitcoin slowing down and fees going up is not a bad thing. It helps cryptos mimic the wealth mediums the public is familiar with. Long term savings and valuable assets aren’t bought and sold in an instant for cheap. Buying a pack of gum you use the change in your pocket. Buying a stereo you’d probably use a card of some sort, just as quick but you pay some fees. Buying/selling property, stocks, bonds and such are all likewise even slower and more expensive. If in America, you use USD. In Canada its CAD. In the retailer Canadian Tire, you can use “Canadian Tire Money”. All of these things are stores of value and are offered in digital and multiple physical forms like bills and coins. So to try to convince the world to adopt 1 single currency for everything seems like an impossible task. The best case scenario future is one where you have one ultra secure wallet that can take any type of crypto. Bitcoins are slow and expensive, but you have a bunch of different currencies for different uses. Buying gum? Use Fastcoin instead, its the fastest. Buying life savings or the reserves of a nation, get Bitcoin.
Safe with gold inside
But now there is a very real chance this future won’t happen. For the first time, I’m falling to the side that believes bitcoin will not remain dominant forever. I’ve been into cryptos since 2012 so this is a long time coming. I think we’ll see a future where Bitcoin is simply one in a pack. Always valuable and top level, but not dominant without question. Its market cap will be surpassed. I don’t like this prediction, but I think it will happen. What will bring this on is a fork in Bitcoin or the threat of one. It won’t necessarily be the fork brewing today with Bitcoin Unlimited, but it will happen. Bitcoin’s scaling problem will forever and always drive a division between its community. There will be those that never want to change the core code of bitcoin and those that will insist it be changed to allow a faster network. That group that wants to change the code will keep trying. And one day, either by popular adoption, or reckless separation, they will get their way. Basically one day the bitcoin blockchain and the people mining it will split into 2 separate groups. The ledger will remain the same at the time of separation for both groups, but from that moment forward they will start building upon 2 different ledgers that do not interact. There are 2 ways this could go down. Popular adoption is the peaceful way, this would be where a high goal is set (90%). When 90% of the miners have agreed to switch, the new code is adopted. The other 10% would continue to mine the old code.

But there is a nastier less predictable way it could go down, and this could happen at any moment. This takes a bit of explanation about how blockchains work. Every 10 mins or so, Bitcoin adds a new “block”, this is how it continues to build its ledger. The block is found by a process where miners look for a specific number within a haystack of random numbers. The first miner to find the needle in the haystack, has thus found the new block and wins a prize of bitcoin generated by the system and fees. So when you’re “mining” bitcoin, you’re always looking for these needles in haystacks, always adding new blocks to the ledger. But everyone has access to the haystack at the same time, so invariably sometimes 2 people in different parts of the world may find the new block at almost the exact same time. This happens frequently and technically, its a fork. The network splits and goes 2 different ways, but its also quickly and automatically resolved. The network self checks itself and determines who was first and was the legit winner. Because its an organic system of interconnected nodes, sometimes the verification from the rest of the network can be confused. To put this into an analogy/perspective…. Suppose the 2 winners who found blocks were in China and Canada. Immediately the Chinese miners close to the winner will confirm his block as legit, but the nearby Canadian miners will do the same thing for the winner in Canada. Its only by a system of the entire network seeing each other and cross verifying a few times, that the real winner is determined.

Double Exposure Of Businesswomen Giving Pen For Your Signature O
So how does this factor into a “reckless separation” threat to bitcoin forking? As it sits now, a large amount of the network is mining a new code called BU. Its a redesign that will allow more transactions than the current code permits. When small forks happen like my above example, its no big deal, the two codes work well with each other and quickly resolve the discrepancies. But, there is the risk of an unforeseen discrepancy between miners that will not automatically resolve. This almost happened back in Feb. Basically a BU miner found a block that the old code miners rejected. Back to my geographic analogy. The guy in China is saying he found the block faster, but as far as I can tell here in Canada, what he found wasn’t a real block so who cares when he found it. This is a much more complicated dispute to resolve and carries a massive risk. In this scenario back in Feb, the BU winner and miners who confirmed him basically backed down. They quickly changed their code to prevent it happening in the future and abandoned the fork that had begun based on the unexpected block. But in this scenario, it was lucky that it went down this way. If the response to the issue was slower, the miners who had confirmed the unusual block, may have resisted abandoning it and kept going creating a new chain. In fact there may well be those within the system who would like such a thing to happen, and would focus their miners on mining a chain based on that new block intentionally. Devs who want the split may even plant flaws into codes to encourage it to occur. This isn’t an accusation against BU specifically, rather a long term prediction… At some point 2 groups of miners will not come to agreement, either by accident or intention, and won’t resolve. At that point there are 2 bitcoins, and we never go back to 1.

bigstock--152160218
My prediction is that this will happen at some point. When it does, both bitcoins will not be able to maintain absolute dominance over other altcoins. As soon as one of the 2 bitcoins drops below ETH or another alt coin in value, its all over. Bitcoin dominance will never be secure again. Any coin could beat it, at any time. Given the low value of Bitcoin overall against world finance, it wouldn’t take much for the ETH backers or another coin to fund a run to surpass the weaker bitcoin.

Caveat. The only way this inevitable fork doesn’t come about is if Bitcoin’s scaling problems are resolved without the need for a fork. This will also come eventually if everyone would just be patient and wait. I’m just thinking now that no, they won’t be patient.

Small brown monkey eating peanuts and looking around
As my friend and blog reader who hopefully has bought some bitcoin, what does this mean for you? My advice is to have a healthy amount of alts coins. I prefer older cheaper coins as they’ve got great room for growth, ETH and DASH are a bit expensive already. So LTC, FTC, PPC, VTC, XPM – the classics. Use polo, bittrex, livecoin or cryptopia– all good sites. Happy to suggest more cryptos too if you want to talk in the comments….My reasoning here is that the money isn’t going to leave Cryptos, but if bitcoin splits the money will probably relocate. So that means alt coins will go way up in value. News of the potential fork has done this to some degree already, but it could be far from over if Bitcoin really does lose the top spot by fork or even just the threat of the fork. Bitcoin’s market cap is 20 billion dollars. Litecoin’s is 200 million. Feathercoin’s 2 million. So its easy to see if bitcoin’s 20 billion in value starts to float about, you won’t need much in altcoins to see incredible gains.

If you don’t have any bitcoin, buy some bitcoin already! If you have bitcoin already, hedge your savings and buy some alt coins as well. Just a little can go a very long way.

 

Posted in Fundamentals | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Recent Bitcoin Price Spike May Only Be The Beginning

The price of BTC shot up last spring, but the fire quickly petered out. Is this upshot we’re seeing now any different?

Cat_climbing_tree,_Uchimaki_Park

One way or another, Bitcoin isn’t going away and is growing. Its history and low market cap suggest that its next upward move, when that happens, will be swift and incredible.

The history. Bitcoin price has always moved in leaps and bounds. Primarily because it is purely speculative at this point. Very little commerce occurs using BTC and what does occur is often driven by enthusiasm for the tech, not actual convenience. Speculators pour money into and out of things all the time, Bitcoin is no exception.

The market cap. Bitcoin is essentially a penny stock at this point. A few millionaires decide they want to convert some of their wealth into BTC, the price is affected dramatically. One billionaire latching onto Bitcoin, at this early stage, would send the price skyrocketing.

chinese rocket

Here is a graph of the price of Bitcoin leading back to 2012 when it was less then $10 on Bitstamp, an American exchange.

Snapz Pro XScreenSnapz232

If you don’t know how these graphs work, here’s the simple description. Red indicates that there were a lot of people selling their Bitcoins, green means there were a lot of people buying. The line along the bottom represents the volume of trades. The top line graph represents what the trading price was.

You will see 2 significant spikes in Bitcoin’s price already. May 2013 and Nov 2013. If you were to zoom in closer, you’d also see a spike when Bitcoin’s went from being worth pennies to shooting over $13.

Also, note that after the May 2013 spike, the price dropped and settled to around $100-$200 and stayed there for some time. Now even though 2014 was one long drop, 2015 has shown a stable price of between $200-$300. So I’d say its reasonable to assume that when it spikes upward the next time, it will go even higher, since its starting from a stable price that is 3 times as high. Whether or not this fall’s price increase is that start of that upward spike, remains to be seen….BUT…lets have a quick look at that volume graph I mentioned at the bottom again, but this time on a Chinese exchange, Huobi.

Snapz Pro XScreenSnapz233

For whatever reason, volume of buys in China is unprecedented right now. Off the chart (not literally – please refer to chart). This is entirely unlike last spring when the volume remained steady.. . .And this is buy volume (green), people are buying a ton of bitcoin in China right now.

Also, note the prices at the top. Consistent now for weeks through this price rise, Chinese exchanges are trading Bitcoin for 10% more. The rest of the world follows along behind them in the upward trend. They buy and push the price up in China, prompting the price to rise everywhere else. Then the Chinese traders see everywhere else go up, so they feel its still undervalued and are probably prompted to buy more. When the exchanges go out of wack with each other, a vicious cycle ensues pushing the price either up or down. Even though Mt. Gox carried 90% of all volume back in 2013, this difference between exchanges happened back then as well. Gox price led the surge upward creating a discrepancy over pricing exchange to exchange – which throws everything into a great state of flux as no one is quite sure what it should be worth.

Well I’ve said it before and I’ll keep saying it, its a good time to buy Bitcoin. Its a powerful political move against banking dominance, its a more secure method of storing wealth. . . and it could make you rich.

moon-clip-art-moon-clip-art-4

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Its Time to Buy Old Alt Coins

A bit about alt coins. I’ll be honest, much of the value of my crypto coin savings is usually in alt coins not bitcoin. I don’t have much money and I’m a risk taker. I’ve invested in coins that both lost and gained 10000% over a few weeks. If you’re not sure what an alt coin is, its a copycat of bitcoin. Someone took bitcoin’s code, changed it around, and started a new decentralized currency. The most famous is Litecoin, its the oldest still functioning copycat coin and has been itself copied many times.

6975154-funny-cat-wallpaper

Bitcoin itself remains considerably more valuable than all the other coins combined yet BTC is an inferior code. Many of the upgrades alt coins offer are technically superior, but that isn’t enough to replace Bitcoin the original in value. Cryptocurrencies exist soley on the concept of value and none has more perceived value than Bitcoin. Value sits at the heart of every decentralized currency. A network of people who all perceive value in one thing will pay fees to have that thing secured and processed. You’ll drop money off at the bank and don’t mind the fees because you’re reasonably sure you’ll get your money back when you need it. With a crypto currency, we’ll pay fees (or suffer inflation) to an anonymous miner somewhere who secures the network processing transactions. But ultimately, if no one sees value in it, there is no money to be made mining it and ultimately it will then lack security. If it lacks security and miners, its value of course drops to nothing. This has happened to many alt coins, even ones older than Litecoin. Someone made a new coin, but something was wrong with it or the community was divided or scammed. People lost interest in buying it, they couldn’t successfully hard fork to fix the problem and remain a community. People then stopped mining it, the network became unsecured, someone probably amassed 90% of supply or the coins were abandoned on exchanges and now no one follows it at all.

326587-ghost-town

This was intended to be more of an investment tip post than anything. I think the time is right to buy up old alt coins. BTC gets its value from being the oldest, so old equals value. But ultimately, as discussed, a crypto coin only exists if people keep seeing value in it. So release date means nothing. By oldest coins I mean those that have maintained a secure network consistently for years. Namecoin for instance is widely known to be useless as a currency, it would never work for technical reasons. It is nothing more than a well secured novelty, but it remains a top valued coin – I have a whole lot of them myself! Old equals value. Its true because enough people like myself believe it and have continued to believe it for years now about certain coins.

Follow along on CoinMarketCaps.com

Click currency tab and select “filter non-mineable and pre-mined” (this takes out the coins that are not decentralized).

In any of these old coins click the yellow graph on the left. Looking at the larger graph now, select “all” at the top to see the chart from inception.

Litecoin, Namecoin, Novacoin, Primecoin, Infinitecoin, Worldcoin, Megacoin, Quark, Feathercoin, Zetacoin, Anoncoin
Snapz Pro XScreenSnapz202Snapz Pro XScreenSnapz204Snapz Pro XScreenSnapz203

Snapz Pro XScreenSnapz205

Snapz Pro XScreenSnapz206Snapz Pro XScreenSnapz207

These 10 coins have consistently kept themselves in the top 30 market caps since their inception in 2013. They are the old alt coins that have survived since the early days. Other than these 10 coins there aren’t really any surviving from 2013. You either cling to the top or die completely, but the longer you hold on, the easier it is to stay on top. What is interesting about these coins is the consistency of their graphs in prices against BTC. Above you see some of the 10 old coins priced in BTC and BTC priced in USD. The timelines are pretty much the same by scale. In every graph you’ll see similarities. Bumps around Dec1 2013, another bump this spring. Also a long decline from Late 2013, followed by stabler prices in 2015. Over and over the graphs look the same (except for key moments in a coin’s history). Bitcoin’s price in USD looks like the alt coin’s price in BTC. This means when BTC goes up, the alt coin price against BTC also goes up and vice versa. This also means that if you have alt coins when BTC goes up, the value of what you have in USD will go up exponentially. So if Bitcoin doubles against USD its reasonable to expect Litcoin to double in value against Bitcoin. When this happens people with savings in Bitcoin see it double in USD, but people with Litecoins see their funds quadruple.
10122100006_b4deb6b907_b
This isn’t mad science either. Look at Bitcoin and Litecoin any day on bitcoinwisdom.com and you can see the 2 coins move in unison. With litecoin being just ever so slightly behind bitcoin- usually, sometimes they reverse. Someone has a whole lot of bitcoin stored up in algorithmic trading computers. The trading is almost instantaneous and programmed to sync the movements.

So how to safely invest in alt coins? haha! can’t be done. But transfer some BTC onto a well established exchange like Cryptsy.com and get some old alt coins now. Download the wallet from the coin’s website hold your funds locally if you don’t trust exchanges to hold your coins. . . .Bitcoin seems to have found a bottom, same can be said for many of the old alt coins. A long decline that stabilized and now doesn’t know what to do. If you believe in Bitcoin and think it will maintain its value and rise, you should have some old alt coins as well, it just makes sense.

mustache-monopoly-guy-thumb-240x240

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Bitcoin and The Hard Fork

A Bitcoin Hard Fork that creates 2 healthy but incompatible bitcoin networks from the original blockchain would be devastating.

Fork_in_the_road_-_geograph.org.uk_-_1355424

Soft Fork. Somebody writes an update to Bitcoin’s code. You can use it, or the old one and both will be perpetually compatible with each other.

Hard Fork. This is where the new software update is incompatible with current software. Thereby a new Bitcoin network is created and if you don’t update your software, you won’t be able to use the new network. You need to chose a side. In the case of BitcoinXT the hard fork would happen on New Years 2015. If a hard fork occurs with XT on New Years (it requires 75% acceptance to happen) 2 networks will be created: original Bitcoin and BitcoinXT.

When news of BitcoinXT hit the Bitcoin mainstream, it was understandably criticized and very few people adopted it. Still now, almost no one is interested in it. Mainly because even if it were technologically superior, which hasn’t been proven, it would create 2 bitcoin networks. 1 network using the new code and >75% popular support. Another network using the old code and a highly vocal <25% who would call themselves the original Bitcoin. Surely at that point outsiders wouldn’t see much more value in a Bitcoin than a BitcoinXT, Litecoin, Peercoin, Dash or anything else.

colored-coins

Bip100, a more popular Hard Fork, would create a new network on Dec 11 2015.

Bitcoin is king because it was first, not because it is best. You muddle the definition of first, you kill Bitcoin.

But that doesn’t mean a hard fork is impossible, it just needs to be done with brutal care. Either you bring absolutely everyone onboard (impossible), or kill the old network somehow when you split. . .Look at it this way. Suppose I create a robot that looks just like me. I also discover a way to convert my mind into digital software (I tried this last week). If I make a copy of my mind and put it into the robot you’d basically see Remi and a robot copy of Remi. Right? 2 entities. No question about the robot being just a copycat….BUT! Suppose in the process of transferring my mind into the robot, I die. You’d be more likely to believe that the “real” Remi had lived on. Similarly the “real” Bitcoin must always be clear. If/when Hard Forks occur, nothing can be left behind. If there is a remaining network of enthusiasts running the original code, thats it, Bitcoin as the dominant crypto is over.

robot-clipart-Kijez5EXT

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Why I won’t be voting.

I’m fighting centralization. Simple really. I have not lost faith in democracy or government, I will continue to vote in municipal elections. I don’t agree with power being consolidated on the Prime Minister/Premiere or global groups like the G-whatever, IMF, UN . . . I do however support the recent moves by certain municipal governments to ban federal laws covering agriculture, privacy, militarization etc. . . To this effect I hope to see elections where my Mayor gets a strong mandate and its obvious from voter turnout nobody gives a crap who the Premiere/PM is.

Image

Consider that when you vote you’re not just voting for the person, but the office. All my life power has continuously consolidated higher up and things have gotten more expensive despite a worldwide flood of new technology/surpluses. The tiny differences in leadership we vote for doesn’t seem to stop or slow any of that. Even positive social changes that do come about seem to spawn from the people, not politicians. I don’t want to condone the power that the office holds, I don’t care who gets to hold it, I’m against the office. Doesn’t matter who we elect,  its always more corporate, less freedom, scarier militaries/police, debt slavery. . . I just don’t want to vote for that anymore, I don’t agree with it. The office is broken, its wrong. If you have the seat of a tyrant, you can only seat a tyrant.

Image

Mayoral is even a big pill for me to swallow here in Toronto, I think this place is too big (this is why we get just as many rich weirdos as they do higher up the ladder).

OR look at it this way. Suppose one day the UN announces a general worldwide election for a new world president. Every citizen of all member nations gets a vote. This world president will have the ability to write laws for all member nations. . . Would you vote for that? . . .If 0.1% of the world population participates in the vote, no one would give the results any mind. If the new ‘leader’ tried to write a new law, we’d all have a good laugh and ignore it – including the police. Ah but what if %80 of the world’s population participated and we elected a new president with a majority win? That guy/chick writes a new law, who is going to object?

Image

Voter turnout is everything.

I watched a lot of The Simpson’s back in the day. Remember that Halloween episode where the corporate mascots/logos turn to real life from billboards and start destroying the city? The people’s solution is to “just don’t look”. If you don’t pay attention to them, they lose all their power.

Image

Constantly choosing the lesser of two evils is still choosing evil.” – Jerry Garcia

Technology is going to make government and anything useful it ever successfully provided redundant. Bitcoin is a part of this, low voter turnout will continue to support this.

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Bitcoin, the slow killer of constitutions and treaties.

Natives got treaties, colonists got a constitution. Terms confuse concepts once again. An organization having physical dominance over a region formed an agreement with the people living in that region. This is done to maintain authority – powers that be agree to certain things and in return the people don’t revolt. This relationship is absolutely no different whether you are native or not, whether your agreement is a treaty or a constitution.

 

Image

Ah but the application of these agreements has been much different, hence the skewing of terminology. Natives quite rightly maintain a feeling of externalization from the Canadian government. As should be the case with any agreement. At the end of the day an agreement posits 2 differing sides, if you’re on one, you can’t be on the other.

Those of us living under a constitutional agreement have the false belief that we’re somehow owners of our constitution or that somehow we live on both sides of the agreement. You can’t make an agreement with yourself, that isn’t an agreement. A constitution is an agreement between rulers and citizens. The means by which a ruler receives his office is also irrelevant. When we vote (if you believe the system is actually democratic- haha), we are forming consensus about who we want to sit on the other side of the bargaining table. But make no mistake, elected officials are no longer members of this population. They are completely externalized from us as is necessitated by the fact that they hold an agreement with us. They can’t BE the people if they hold an agreement with the people.

This is why govs take a different approach to treaty vs constitutional issues. The concept is identical, but the constitutional crowd is full of suckers who allow their agreement to be changed at will. Meaning there really isn’t any agreement at all, just pandering.

This is also why I cringe when people say that Natives have ‘special rights’. There’s nothing special about it, its an agreement – we have one too. Its like any other contract you can imagine. We’ve also got an incredible amount of power from our agreement if we wanted it. Canada is constituted on the Magna Carta giving us all sorts of rights hardly any of us bother to assert. The problem isn’t a lack of written rights, its that we’re too lazy or stupid to insist the other side of the table maintains their obligations to our contract.

 

How is this relevant to Bitcoin? Well if we can successfully decentralize the monetary system, much of what we want from the other side of the bargain table dissolves. We in so many ways just won’t need government anymore, we can make them redundant. If they no longer have things we want, there is not reason to form agreements – why would you enter an agreement with someone who has nothing to offer you? … At which point they can go ahead and do whatever they like with their silly constitutions and treaties. Here’s a suggestion: roll it into a ball and cram it up your elitist arses, we don’t need to sit at this crooked table anymore.

 

Oh and buy Mazacoin, MZC. National sovereign currency of the Lakota people (Sioux)!

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment